Objectively Valuating a Redemption

I often struggle with evaluating a points redemption versus revenue.  Perhaps it is the Mathematician in me or that I am truly a nerd.

Sometimes the choice is obvious:  $99 one way from Boise to Seattle on Alaska Airlines or 4,500 Avios + $6 for the same exact flight.

But what about the opportunity cost?  Did I account for the $6 taxes?  What is a point really worth??

If I buy a $99 revenue ticket from Boise to Seattle I will earn 500 Alaska Airline miles.  That is because Alaska will give you a minimum of 500 miles even if the actual miles flown is less than 500 miles.

So perhaps I should add that 500 miles to the 4,500 Avios redemption and really call it 5,000 miles for the redemption instead of just 4,500.  I suppose that makes sense.

And I suppose I should subtract the $6 government taxes on the award flight from the $99 revenue flight and call it $93 instead.

I am trying to make an objective comparison and trying to determine the actual cost of a mile.

Ok, so we have $99 revenue vs 4,500 Avios + $6.  But it is really $93 vs 5,000 Avios (or miles, an Avio is just a mile by another name).

I would normally say $99 / 4,500 miles is 2.2 cents per mile is a pretty good rate of return for my miles.

But really, it is more like $93 / 5,000, or 1.86 cents per mile.  That is still pretty good, but do you see what I am getting at?

Not to get too bent out of shape here and overthink the situation… because there are other factures, too, to consider.  Do I have miles to burn?  Is this a trip I would take even if I had to pay revenue?

You see my point?